Shoppers are expected to be plentiful – in stores and online – during Thanksgiving week as they research deals and stock up on products due to inventory issues.
Retail sales in the United States during Thanksgiving week are expected to increase 10.0% year-over-year and 12.2% over the same period in 2019, according to Mastercard Spending Pulse, which measures sales Global retail for all payment types, including cash and checks. Reports exclude automobiles and gas.
E-commerce is also expected to experience strong growth, increasing 7.1% year-on-year and 50.2% during Thanksgiving week 2019.
With supply chain challenges straining product availability, high inflation and consumers creating unprecedented demand for goods, this holiday season is shaping up to be a seller’s market for retailers, according to Mastercard. Key Trends for Thanksgiving Week to watch out for are below.
- Deal hunters may be disappointed with the limited discounts: Planned spending on major gift categories such as clothing (up 56.0%), electronics (up 29.6%) and jewelry (up 39.7%) may bring retailers to make strategic discounts to manage product inventory and shipping constraints.
- Black Friday bounces back in 2021: Total non-auto and gasoline retail sales growth is expected to exceed 20% on Black Friday. Last year, Black Friday sales were cut due to limited in-store foot traffic. With the return of doorbusters bringing consumers back to stores and full-screen holiday shopping, the day should bounce back with optimism.
- Store closures for Thanksgiving: Many big box retailers, department stores and malls will remain closed on Thanksgiving Day, giving consumers and employees time to reconnect with family and friends – or shop for seasonal deals online. Thanksgiving week online sales are expected to increase by 50.2% compared to the same period in 2019.
In September, Mastercard SpendingPulse said that he expected a 7.4% growth in retail sales in the United States during the holiday season (November 1 to December 24). In-store sales are expected to rebound, up 6.6% from 2020.
“The holiday lights are shining for retailers this year,” said Steve Sadove, senior advisor to Mastercard and former CEO and president of Saks Incorporated. “The consumer is strong and a spendthrift. With discounts rare, product innovation, availability and durability will be deciding factors for consumers wanting to cross their holiday shopping lists. “
As expected, the holiday shopping season kicked off in October, with early promotions drawing consumers online and in stores. According to Mastercard SpendingPulse, October retail sales in the United States, excluding autos and gasoline, were up 6.1% year-on-year and 12.9% from October 2019. E-commerce sales in October increased 13.2% year on year and 76.7% compared to 2019 compared to 2019 in the same periods.
Clothing, jewelry, luxury goods and foodservice all saw double-digit growth from 2020 and 2019. In addition, department stores grew 17.7% from last year and 6%. , 6% compared to 2019.